2020年5月21日 星期四

Outrage Could Endanger the Economy 紓困引發民怨 恐危害美經濟


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2020/05/22 第305期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 Outrage Could Endanger the Economy 紓困引發民怨 恐危害美經濟
Study Sees 'Cliff Edge' Of Die-Offs Over Climate 氣候變遷 將使野生動物驟然消亡
紐時周報精選
 
Outrage Could Endanger the Economy 紓困引發民怨 恐危害美經濟
文/Neil Irwin
譯/陳韋廷 核稿/樂慧生

紓困引發民怨 恐危害美經濟

The United States economy is in free fall, with tens of millions of people unemployed and countless businesses at risk of collapse. Congress has already allocated nearly $3 trillion to contain the crisis, and it is widely understood that it will need to do more.

美國經濟處於自由落體狀態,數千萬人失業,無數企業面臨倒閉的危險。美國國會已撥出近3兆美元來遏制這場危機,但咸信這麼做還不夠。

Yet with stunning speed, the political conversation has pivoted from whatever-it-takes determination toward a different feeling: outrage.

然而,政治對話已以驚人速度從不惜一切的決心,轉向一種不同的感覺:憤怒。

Increasingly, lawmakers, media coverage and ordinary voters are focused not on preventing a potential depression, but on litigating which recipients of federal rescue are morally worthy and which are not.

愈來愈多國會議員、媒體報導與選民不再把關注重點置於防止潛在的經濟蕭條,而是置於爭論收受聯邦救助的對象在道德上哪些站得住腳,哪些則否。

For many on the political left, that has expressed itself as outrage at big corporations taking advantage of government rescues or cheap credit supplied by the Federal Reserve. On the right, it has included anger at federal government support for state and local governments, and at expanded unemployment insurance benefits supporting the jobless. For the news media, it has meant articles about rescue money going to arguably unworthy organizations like prep schools and steakhouse chains.

對許多左派人士來說,這自行表達了對大企業利用政府救助或聯準會所提供廉價貸款的憤怒。在右派方面,這包括了對聯邦政府支持州與地方政府,以及對擴大失業保險福利以支持失業者的憤怒。對新聞媒體來說,這意味著針對救助資金流向預備學校跟連鎖牛排館等顯然不適格組織所做報導。

In effect, a scramble is underway to define who counts as deserving of a piece of the multi-trillion dollar federal rescues. The risk is that this fuels a sense of scarcity, of zero-sum jockeying. It has the potential to limit the government's response and suspend help to affected individuals, businesses and governments before the crisis is anywhere close to ending.

實際上,一場爭奪戰已然展開,以界定誰才夠資格從這數兆美元聯邦救助金中分得一杯羹。風險在於,這助長了稀缺感,即零和的競爭。在危機尚不知何時方能結束以際,這可能會限制政府的反應,並中斷對受影響個人、企業與政府的援助。

"My conservative friends don't think states and cities deserve help," said Tony Fratto, who worked in the George W. Bush White House and is now a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies. "My progressive friends think certain businesses don't deserve help. And my libertarian friends don't want anyone to get help."

曾在小布希總統任內於白宮工作、現為漢密爾頓地方策略公司合夥人的法拉托說:「保守派朋友認為州跟城市不值得幫助。進步派朋友認為某些企業不值得幫助。自由派朋友則不希望任何人獲得幫助。」

"These are the seeds of long, slow, painful recoveries," he said.

他說道:「這些都是讓復甦漫長、緩慢且痛苦的種子。」

In particular, there is an emerging tendency to apply a lens that made more sense in the 2008 global financial crisis and its aftermath: the idea of "moral hazard." Economists use the term to refer to the bad incentives that are created when people or companies know they will be rescued from their mistakes.

尤其是現在出現一種新趨勢,即採用一種用於2008年全球金融危機及餘波時期更為合理的觀點:「道德風險」的概念。經濟學家使用該術語來指在人們或公司知道他們犯了錯卻能獲得救援的情形下,祭出的不良激勵措施。

In the last crisis, conservatives complained about mortgage relief for home buyers who had borrowed more than they could afford.

在上次危機中,保守派不滿超過自身承受能力貸款購房者獲得房貸減免。

The bank bailouts of that era involved huge moral hazard problems, in that the very financial institutions that had fueled a mortgage bubble were being protected from its full consequences.

那時對銀行的紓困涉及巨大的道德風險問題,因為獲得保護,使其免於承擔全部後果的金融機構,正是那些助長抵押貸款泡沫的禍首。

But arguments that similar concerns should apply in the COVID-19 crisis are less persuasive.

可是,類似顧慮也應適用於2019新型冠狀病毒疫情危機的論點,則較不具說服力。

But that crucial difference — that corporations are victims of the coronavirus, not the cause of it — is ignored by an emerging thread of commentary.

然而,企業是新冠疫情的受害者,而非造成疫情的原因這一關鍵差異,卻被一系列新興評論所忽視。

 
Study Sees 'Cliff Edge' Of Die-Offs Over Climate 氣候變遷 將使野生動物驟然消亡
譯/莊蕙嘉、核稿/樂慧生
文/Catrin Einhorn

氣候變遷 將使野生動物驟然消亡

Climate change could result in a more abrupt collapse of many animal species than previously thought, starting in the next decade if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, according to a study published last month in Nature.

根據發表在四月號「自然」期刊的一項研究結果,如果溫室氣體排放沒有減少,從下一個十年開始,氣候變遷可能使許多動物物種比先前以為的更驟然消亡。

The study predicted that large swaths of ecosystems would falter in waves, creating sudden die-offs that would be catastrophic not only for wildlife but also for the humans who depend on it.

這項研究預測,大面積的生態系統可能在這波浪潮中衰敗,造成驟然出現的接連死亡,不只對野生動物而言是個大災難,對賴以生存的人類亦復如此。

"For a long time things can seem OK, and then suddenly they're not," said Alex L. Pigot, a scientist at University College London and one of the study's authors. "Then, it's too late to do anything about it because you've already fallen over this cliff edge."

「在很長的時間一切看來都好,接著突然就不行了。」倫敦大學學院科學家,這項研究報告作者之一的艾力克斯.皮卓說。「然後,做任何事都太遲了,因為你已經從懸崖邊緣跌落。」

The latest research adds to an already bleak picture for the world's wildlife unless urgent action is taken to preserve habitats and limit climate change. More than 1 million plant and animal species are at risk of extinction because of the myriad ways humans are changing the Earth by farming, fishing, logging, mining, poaching and burning fossil fuels.

人們原已明瞭,除非採取緊急行動以保留其棲息地並限制氣候變遷,世上野生動物前景淒涼,這項最新研究為這景象又添上了一筆。超過100萬種植物和動物有滅絕的風險,因為人類正以各種方式改變地球,像是農墾、魚撈、伐木、採礦、盜獵及焚燒化石燃料。

The study looked at more than 30,000 species on land and in water to predict how soon climate change would affect population levels and whether those levels would change gradually or suddenly. To answer these questions, the authors determined the hottest temperature that a species is known to have withstood and then predicted when that temperature would be surpassed around the world under different emissions scenarios.

這項研究檢視超過三萬種陸地和水中生物,以預測氣候變遷多快會影響種群數層級,以及這些層級會逐漸改變或是突然改變。為回答這些問題,作者們找出了一個物種已知可承受的最高溫度,接著預測在不同排放情況下,世界各地何時會超過這個溫度上限。

When they examined the projections, the researchers were surprised that sudden collapses appeared across almost all species — fish, reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals — and across almost all regions.

研究人員檢視這些預測時,驚訝地發現,幾乎所有物種和所有地區都出現突然的族群崩解,包括魚類、爬蟲類、兩棲類、鳥類及哺乳動物。

If greenhouse gas emissions remain on current trajectories, the research showed that abrupt collapses in tropical oceans could begin in the next decade. Coral bleaching events over the last several years suggest that these losses have already started, the scientists said. Collapse in tropical forests, home to some of the most diverse ecosystems on Earth, could follow by the 2040s.

如果溫室氣體排放維持目前的曲線,研究顯示,熱帶海洋裡的動物突然消亡將在下一個十年開始。科學家說,近幾年來的珊瑚白化現象顯示,這些減損已經開始。地球一些最具多樣性的生態系統所在的熱帶森林,可能在2040年代之前繼之崩解。

But if global warming was held to below 2 degrees Celsius, the number of species exposed to dangerous climate change would drop by 60%. That, in turn, would limit the number of ecosystems exposed to catastrophic collapse to about 2%.

但是,若全球暖化能控制在攝氏兩度以下,暴露於危險氣候變遷的物種數量將減少60%。如此一來,暴露於災難性崩解的生態系數量可限制至2%左右。

The study does not take into account other factors that could help or hurt a species' survival. For example, some species may tolerate or adapt to higher temperatures; on the other hand, if their food sources could not, they would die off just the same.

這項研究並未考慮其他可幫助或傷害族群生存的因素,例如,有些物種或許可忍耐或適應更高的溫度。然而,如果牠們的食物來源無法生存,牠們也一樣會相繼死亡。

 
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